Month: March 2020

New Natural Gas (603393) 2019 Interim Review: Asian American Energy Net Profit Growth

New Natural Gas (603393) 2019 Interim Review: Asian American Energy Net Profit Growth

Investment Highlights Event: On August 20, the company announced the 2019 Interim Report.

The company achieved 12 in 1H19.

2 billion, an increase of 128 in ten years.

52%; net profit attributable to mother 1.

5.6 billion, an increase of 52 in ten years.

14%; deduct non-net profit 1.

5.6 billion, an increase of 54 in ten years.


The top priority of the previous best growth was the consolidation of Asian and American energy.

  Both the volume and price of the Panzhuang project rose more than expected, and Asian-American energy performance increased by 64 each year.


Asian American Energy’s 1H19 revenue reached 7.

640,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of +37.

77%; total sales 4.

4.2 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of +20.


Net profit reached 3.

390,000 yuan, +64.


The volume and price of the Panzhuang project rose, with a total output of 4.

1.6 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of +24.

61% for sale price 1.

80 yuan / square, +17 over the same period last year.


  Due to the rise in gas prices during the heating season, the cost of gas purchase for the city fuel business has increased significantly, and sales have fallen.

The price of natural gas in this period has increased sharply compared with the same period of last year, of which the sales price 1H18 / 1H19 were 1.


75 yuan / square, the unit cost of 1H18 / 1H19 is 1 respectively.


42 yuan / m3 (Note: about 85% of the cost is the cost of gas purchase), the narrowing of the purchase and sales price gap led to the increase in gross profit margin (1H18 / 1H19 were 31.

27% / 18.


In addition, the sharp increase in prices has led to a reduction in sales.

75% (1H18 / 1H19 are 3 respectively.


9.9 billion cubic meters).

  The consolidation resulted in a significant increase in expense ratios.

Company selling expenses 0.4.7 billion, sales expense ratio 3.

86%, an annual increase of 2.

41ppts, 合肥夜网 mainly after the Asian-American energy consolidation, 0.

The transportation cost of 3.8 billion coalbed methane pipelines is included in sales expenses.

Management fee 0.

94 trillion, expense ratio 7.

75%, an annual increase of 3.

50ppts is mainly due to the increase in employee compensation after the consolidation and the consulting fees paid for the acquisition.

Finance costs 0.

470,000 yuan, the cost is 3.

74%, an annual increase of 0.

48ppts is mainly financing costs incurred in the acquisition of Asian American Energy.

  The overall development plan of the Mabi Blockchain was approved, focusing on commercialization progress.

In October 2018, the Development and Reform Commission approved the joint development of a 1 billion m3 / year coalbed methane project in the Mabi block by PetroChina and Asia-US 杭州夜生活网 coalbed methane.

The total investment of the Mabi blockchain project is 46.

4 trillion, Asian American Energy’s equity accounted for 70%, PetroChina’s equity accounted for 30%.

The project construction scale is 1 billion m3 / year, the construction period is 4 years, and the coalbed methane reserves are 196.

2.3 billion cubic meters, plans to construct 1341 coalbed methane development wells, of which 58 trial production wells have been completed, and 1283 new development wells.

The overall development plan (ODP) of the Mabi block was approved by the Development and Reform Commission in early October. It will become a new profit growth point for the company after commercialization in the future.

  Investment suggestion: Maintain the rating of “Prudent Overweight”.

The company successfully acquired Asia-American Energy, the entire industrial chain layout was implemented, the overall development plan of the Mabi block was quickly approved, the commercialization time moved forward, and the traditional city fuel business grew steadily, benefiting from the increase in volume and price of the natural gas market.

We maintain the company’s net profit forecast to be at 4.



20 trillion, a growth rate of 41.

2% / 57.

2% / 37.

3%, corresponding to an estimate of 10 on August 20.



0 times.

  Risk reminder: The development progress of Asian-American Energy Mabi blockchain exceeds expected risks, and the risk of natural gas prices falling.

EU will extend indefinitely the time limit for settling the Iran nuclear issue

EU will extend indefinitely the time limit for settling the Iran nuclear issue

Josep Borelli, Vice-Chairman of the European Commission and EU’s High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, said that the EU will extend the time limit for resolving the Iranian nuclear issue indefinitely to avoid related objections to the United Nations or trigger new sanctions on Iran.

  Borelli visited Iran on the 3rd in an attempt to persuade Iran to continue with the terms of the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue, while explaining to the Iranian side that although the United Kingdom, France and Germany launched the dispute settlement mechanism for the Iranian nuclear issue in mid-January, the prospects of the Iranian nuclear agreement remain clear.

  On the 4th, the media broadcasted a speech delivered by Borelli on the 3rd.

He said: We agree not to set a strict time limit that binds us to the rules.

The (our) expectation is not to start a process to end the Iran nuclear agreement or to let the agreement survive.

  Reuters reports that, in theory, the dispute settlement mechanism has been reactivated and each must resolve the Iranian nuclear issue dispute within 15 hours.

However, since Iran has not formally recognized this mechanism, each of them has settled the dispute over when the 15-day period will start.

  Borelli said he has reached an agreement with Britain, France and Germany to extend the 15-day period.

However, he said that whether the deadline could be extended after all is whether IAEA personnel can remain in Iran to verify the verification 西安桑拿 project.

  Iran ‘s presidential palace issued a statement on the 3rd, saying that Iran is willing to cooperate with the European Union to resolve the issues facing the Iranian nuclear agreement.

(Yan Jie)[Xinhua News Agency Special]Original title: Delaying the EU’s efforts to avoid the Iran nuclear issue indefinitely

Ren Zeping: The bull market launched in early 2019 is Reform Bull 2.

0 ”

Ren Zeping: The bull market launched in early 2019 is “Reform Bull 2.”

0 ”

Ren Zeping: The bull market launched in early 2019 is “Reform Bull 2.”

0 ”Source: Zeping Macro In the long dark night of a five-year bear market, the market was in a tragic mood. In 2014, the author put forward“ 5000 points is not a dream ”and“ the last battle against the bear market.

  In 2015, when the market was about to reach 5,000 points, it was in a state of extreme fanaticism. When the “selling house and stock market” became popular, the author proposed “I rationalized the market and became crazy”, “the altitude has been high and the wind has been walking slowly”, and predicted that “house prices doubled.”

  At the end of 2018, when the “departure theory” and “washing and sleeping” ideas became popular and the market was extremely pessimistic, the author proposed that “A lot of A shares are now very cheap” and “the best investment opportunities are in China”.No, it’s Thai. ”

  Is the future 杭州桑拿网 predictable?

This mysterious question has long been controversial, sometimes as if we were presupposing astrology.

But when we start to explore the world of the economic cycle and the nature of human nature, it can help us understand and even master the law of development of things, make decisions more correct, and be different.

  Focusing on the analysis of macroeconomic indicators for 20 years, I deeply understand the nature of basic research and logical framework, and believe that independence and objectivity are the foundation of research.

He has participated in major debates in the macro field for many times. At first he was a minority, but it was widely accepted and verified by economic operations.

In 2010, he participated in the research and proposed the “speed-up shift”, 2015 forecast “economic L-type”, and 2017 forecast “new cycle”.

  What is the main logic of the bull market that started in early 2019?

Where does the future go?

This is the most concerned issue in the current market.

  In 2014, the author first proposed the “reform cow” and created the “buffalo” and “transition cow” analysis framework and logical system, which are widely spread in the market.

  We believe that this is an upgraded version of the “Reform Bull”, namely “Reform Bull 2”.

0 “.

  First, this is an upgraded version of the “Reform Bull”: “Reform Bull 2.”

0 “According to international experience, the successful catch-up economies have shifted around the per capita GDP of 11,000 international dollars, with the average economic growth rate from 8.

3% dropped to 4.

5%, a decrease of about 50%.

With the demise of demographic dividends, rising labor costs, and technological progress from imitation to innovation, China’s economy has been facing growth shifts and structural changes in recent years.

At present, the main challenges facing the Chinese economy are structural and institutional issues, rather than externalities and problems. Therefore, reform and opening up is the only way out. Water stimulus will bring a brewing crisis. Germany, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, China and other successful transformationsSimilar things have happened in all economies.

  The author once proposed that “new 5% is better than old 8%”: the new 5% new growth platform built through reform in the future is better than the old 8% old growth platform that was barely maintained by stimulus in the past.The industrial structure has been upgraded, the growth momentum has been changed, the risk-free interest rate has fallen, corporate profits have improved, and the stock market has gone bullish.

  According to the DDM model, reforms will reduce risk-free interest rates, increase risk appetite, and improve China’s long-term economic growth prospects.

  In 2014, China started a magnificent round of “reform bulls”.

“0” is mainly driven by the reform’s expectations. Expectations are ahead, but the reforms have fallen short of expectations for various reasons.

Due to the impediment of reforms, the policy subsequently turned to water stimulus and resumed the old path.

“0” turned into a “buffalo”, which skyrocketed and eventually ended in the form of a stock market disaster.

  ”Reform Bull 2″ launched in early 2019.

0 “is” Reform Bull 1. ”

The upgraded version of “0” is mainly driven by the actual implementation of the reform and the release of dividends.

  In December 2015, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed five major tasks of supply-side structural reforms: “de-capacity, de-stocking, deleveraging, cost reduction, and shortcomings”.””, Began to return to the right path, excess production capacity is cleared, real estate inventory is digested, and financial high leverage risks are resolved.

Although it experienced pain in 2016-2018, the old growth model was effectively cleared, and financial risks were controlled in a timely manner, which created the conditions for starting the “new cycle” of the Chinese economy.

  In the first half of 2018, the Sino-US trade war broke out and became the best sober agent. The external situation forced the internal and internal development needs, and China’s new round of opening-up process accelerated.

In the Boao speech in April 2018, it announced significant reductions in tariffs, accelerated liberalization of investment restrictions in financial and auto industries, and strengthening of intellectual property protection.

In March 2019, Premier Boao gave a speech, announcing to speed up the revision of the Foreign Investment Law, and expanding the opening of value-added telecommunications, medical institutions, education services, transportation, infrastructure, energy resources and other fields.Positive progress has been made in the China-US trade negotiations, and a new round of vigorous opening-up has been implemented.

  In March 2019, the “Government Work Report” announced a large-scale tax reduction plan. The private economy was highly valued, the multi-level capital market was raised to a new height, and the science and technology board and registration system were launched at a rapid pace.

  Judging from the actual reform process, investor response and market trends, “Reform Bull 2.”

The theory of “0” is valid.

  Why is this not a “buffalo” round?

Generally speaking, the monetary policy is structurally loose rather than flooded, the growth rate of M2 and social financing has rebounded moderately, shadow banking has been regulated, the real estate market has been operating steadily, and the stock market has been booming.

  Why is this not a “performance cow”?

Because reform and transformation are halfway through, it will take time for corporate profits to improve.

  There are also opinions in the market that put forward the “powerful bull” and “rejuvenation bull”. There is some truth, but the essence of the object has not been grasped, and the rejuvenation of a strong power depends on reform and opening up.

  The author expressly opposes the “national bull” view, and opposes any policy or government endorsement of the bull market. It is necessary to respect the laws of the market. From domestic and foreign experience, violations of economic laws and regulations will be punished.

  Second, the basic theory and experience of the “reform bull” growth shift and structural transformation period, “new 5% is better than the old 8%”, “reform is better than stimulus”, reform created a bull market, stimulated the brewing crisis.

  1. From the experience of Germany, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, during the period of speed-up and gear-up, reform and opening up are the catalysts for the bull market. This will inevitably accelerate the reform and opening up in real terms and clear the progress of deleveraging.

  In the first half of the speed-up and gear-shift period, facing the huge challenges of structural change and deteriorating new ones, most economies initially refused to slow down and change. Inertia believes that economic growth is mainly a gradual or external issue, and attempts to stimulate the traditional heavy chemical industry through currency.Local infrastructure and real estate have returned to a high growth trajectory, maintaining the old growth model, which has led to increased leverage in finance, a sharp rise in debt risk, and the creation of a large number of ineffective capital requirements, forming zombies, black capital holes and huge debt vacancies, and brewing financial risks.

The risk-free interest rate is too high, the risk appetite is too low (investors are pessimistic about the prospect of economic transformation), the market is closed for a long bear market, or the short-term currency stimulus has plummeted.

  In the second half of the speed-up and shift-down period, all sectors of society, especially the government, form a consensus on reform, speeding up the reform, Lewis turning point, real estate bubble, and the strengthening of the US dollar.

There are two ways to deleverage, one is to actively reform the old and establish the new (Taiwan, China), and the other is to force the crisis to clear the country (Japan and South Korea).

Once the process of reform and opening up and liquidation deleveraging is started, the demand for invalid financing shrinks, the risk-free interest rate decreases, the risk increases, and market confidence recovers, thus becoming a catalyst for a bull market.

  2. German, Japanese, South Korean and Taiwanese macro-scale growth and shifting period and the bull and bear catalysts 1) Capital market performance during the Korean shifting period: the crisis was forced, the economy and the stock market took a deep dive.

South Korea refused to slow down in the first half of the 1992-1996 gear shift period, hoping to overcome the stimulus to maintain the old growth model, delay the clearance, increase the cycle of leverage and resistance, and raise the risk-free interest rate.

South Korea entered the second half of the speed-up shift period from 1997 to 2003. The 1997 financial crisis forced South Korea to clear its deleverage, and its risk-free rate of return declined.

The South Korean government was determined to push forward reforms, followed by industrial upgrading and rising corporate profits. Although Korea’s economic growth rate has not returned to the era of high growth since 2000, the stock market has gone badly.

  2) The performance of the capital market during the period of Japan’s speed-up and gear-up: the crisis was forced, the economy and the stock market took a deep dive.

Japan refused to slow down in the first half of the 1969-1973 gear shift period. The island reforms and currency layout stimulated the economy, and a short-term bubble appeared in the housing market.

Around 1973, the oil crisis and the over-inflation of the currency earlier caused high inflation, monetary policy shifted to austerity, and excessive risk-free interest rates led to a bear market for the stock market.

Japan entered the second half of the speed-up shift period from 1973 to 1980. After reform and structural adjustment, Japan’s industry was upgraded after 1975. The speed-up shift has made positive progress, the risk-free returns have been lowered, and the stock market has experienced a big bull market.

  3) The performance of the capital market during the gear shift period in Taiwan, China: The economy has transitioned smoothly, with stocks and bonds taking off directly.

The speed-up shifting of Taiwan, China occurred in the second half of the 1980s. However, as Jiang Jingguo advanced the reform ahead of the speed-up shifting in the early 1980s, the industry successfully upgraded to the electronic information industry.

Therefore, although the GDP growth rate has come down, but the risk-free coefficient has dropped sharply, coupled with the inflow of hot money from the trade surplus, the stock market has come out of a big bull market.

  4) The performance of the capital market during the German gearshift period: controlled exchange rates, tight currency, 7% yield on government bonds, and double-hits on stock bonds.

In 1965-1975, Germany expanded its hot money scale and was forced to adopt a tight monetary policy during the gear shift period. The risk-free interest rate was as high as about 8%. The stock market was a bear market and did push-ups.

It wasn’t until the 1990s that German risk-free interest rates rose and there was a big bull market in German stocks.

  3. Growth and shifting period, the reform creates a bull market, stimulating the brewing crisis. Gearing up, the economic slowdown is mainly due to structural and institutional reasons. Therefore, only reform can get out of the predicament, open a new future, and create a bull market.
Therefore, the key is to see the government’s determination to reform and open up and the beginning of clear deleveraging progress.

  Stimulation is steady growth, the disadvantage is to maintain the old growth model, delay the clearing, increase leverage, and reform is steady growth. The advantage is to release new vitality, accelerate the clearing of leverage, and break the old.

  International experience shows that the new 5% is better than the old 8%: during the gear shift period, the 5% new growth platform constructed through reform is better than the barely maintained 8% old platform. The excess capacity has been cleared and the micro-lives have been released.The industrial structure has been upgraded, the growth momentum has been changed, the risk-free interest rate has fallen, corporate profits have improved, and the stock market has gone bullish.
  Third, start the new cycle of China’s economy and the “Reform 2”.

0 “After years of trial and error and macro debates, China’s macro-scale and reform and opening up are on the right path recently, corporate confidence has been restored, the economy is stabilizing, and investors are voting with their feet.

  In the future, macro-budgeting policies should not only prevent untimely and insufficient hedging, but also prevent flooding and resuming the old path.

  Talking about the wrong country and doing prosperity.

Only with a pragmatic and market-oriented push for a new round of reform and opening up will it be possible to start a new cycle of China’s economy, a “reform bull”.0 “can go higher and farther, don’t repeat the same mistakes.

  It is recommended to use six major areas of reform and opening up as breakthroughs and mobilize the polarities at all levels: 1. Establish a breakthrough development assessment system, encourage local pilots, and mobilize the enthusiasm of local governments; 2. Fully liberalize automobiles, finance, petroleum, electricity, electricity, etc.Industry regulation, neutral competition, and mobilization of entrepreneurial enthusiasm.

The biggest reform is openness. Through openness, fair competition among market entities such as state-owned enterprises, private enterprises, and foreign enterprises, survival of the fittest, and improvement of efficiency will be achieved.

China has never been afraid of opening up. It is afraid that it will not open up. 3. Taking China-US trade negotiations as an opportunity to reduce tariffs, liberalize industry investment restrictions, strengthen intellectual property protection, actively promote the establishment of a China-US free trade zone, and mobilize rich enthusiasm; 4Large-scale tax and fee reductions, from fragmentation, preferential tax reduction to a package, inclusive tax reduction, comprehensive reduction of corporate income, manufacturing transformation, personal income tax rate, and improved corporate and residents’ sense of gain.

At the same time, through simplified administration and decentralization and institutional reforms, reduce redundant personnel and expenditures, and mobilize the enthusiasm of enterprises and residents; 5. Vigorously develop multi-level capital markets, reduce administrative intervention while strengthening legal supervision, encourage mergers and acquisitions and reorganization, and promote information disclosureThe registration system with the core of severe punishment and punishment, delisting system, etc., mobilize the enthusiasm of the new economy and PEVC venture capital; 6, the establishment of a housing-oriented housing system and long-term mechanism, the key is human-land linkage and financial stability.

Change the urbanization ideas of “control the population of large cities, actively develop small and medium-sized cities and small towns, and achieve balanced regional development” as soon as possible. The urban planning regional planning strategies for metropolitan agglomerations led by large cities will promote population and land.Free and full flow of technology and other factors, mobilizing enthusiasm in various regions.

Huatai Securities (601688) 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: Growth in self-employed revenue drives significant improvement in performance

Huatai Securities (601688) 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: Growth in self-employed revenue drives significant improvement in performance

Core views: 1. Recently, the company released the financial report for the first quarter of 2019.

2. Our analysis and judgment 1) Net profit is increased by 46 each year.

06%, the performance improved significantly in the first quarter of 2019 the company achieved operating income62.

48 ppm, an increase of 45 in ten years.

65%; net profit attributable to mother 27.

80 杭州夜网 ppm, an increase of 46 in ten years.

06%; basic EPS 0.

34 yuan, an annual increase of 25.

93%, ROE (expected average) 2.

66%, increasing by 0 every year.

5 units.

In terms of revenue structure, the company’s self-operated business accounted for 53% in the first quarter of 2019.

97%, an increase of 19 a year.

77 tiers are the first to boost performance growth; brokerages, investment banks, asset management and net interest account for the respective proportions.

99%, 3.

97%, 11.

40% and 8.

04%, a decrease of 4 per year.

99, 5.


20 and 8.

22 units.

2) The self-employed business performed well, boosting performance growth The company’s self-operated business achieved revenue in the first quarter.

7.2 billion, an increase of 19 years.

05 ppm, an increase of 129.

87% is the first to drive the company’s performance growth.

Of which net investment income was 26.

US $ 9.3 billion, an increase of 93 in ten years.

09%; gains from changes in fair value 7.

65 ppm, an increase of more than five times over the same period last year.

In the first quarter of 2019, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index increased gradually23.

93% and 36.

84%, promoted the increase in the company ‘s equity investment, and increased the company ‘s performance.

3) The brokerage business increased significantly, the asset management business revenue increased and market transactions picked up, helping the brokerage business revenue grow.

In the first quarter of 2019, the average daily trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased by 21 year-on-year.

08%, under the background of the market recovery, the company’s brokerage business has a leading market share and a significant advantage.

The company achieved net income from brokerage business11.

24 ppm, an increase of 14 in ten years.05%.

The company explores the intelligent transformation of outlets, uses fintech to upgrade the intelligent marketing service platform, actively promotes the integration of online and offline resources and full-service chain resources, and uses fintech to empower wealth management transformation.

In the asset management business, the company reported a series of realized net income7.

12 ppm, an increase of 31 in ten years.


Relying on the advantages of the entire business chain resources, the company has effectively changed to the direction of active management, actively cultivated a sustainable and transformed business model, and achieved an increase in asset management business revenue.

4) Investment banking business income was under pressure, and credit business income increased. In the first quarter of 2019, the company realized net investment banking business income2.

48%, a year-on-year decrease of 39.


Allegedly, the amount of shares issued, the number of shares and the amount of issuance fell by 51 compared with the same period last year.

3.8 billion.

In terms of bond underwriting, the company’s bond underwriting amount in the first quarter was 645.

6.6 billion, an increase of 234 every year.


Of the 98 companies whose applications for listing on the Science and Technology Innovation Board are exempted, the company underwrites 7 of them, ranking third among brokers.

Reported company, company net net income 5.

03 billion, down 27 every year.

95%, of which interest income is 18.

8.1 billion, down 22 each year.

10%, interest expense 13.

7.8 billion, down 19 each year.


Interest rate income may be related to the contraction of credit business.

At the end of the first quarter, the company raised 579 funds.

340,000 yuan, basically the same as the same period last year (+0 compared with the same period last year).

32%); the size of financial assets under resale agreements reached 435.

35 ppm, a significant reduction of 29 previously.



Investment advice The company’s leading brokerage business is solid overall, the Internet is leading the way, and the wealth management system has significant advantages.

The logic of industry concentration continues to increase. As a large-scale integrated securities firm, the company has advantages in terms of asset scale, business qualifications and talents.

We are optimistic about the company’s future development prospects. Based 苏州桑拿网 on the company’s fundamentals and estimates, we maintain a “recommended” rating, EPS 0 for 2019/2020/2021.



16 yuan, currently corresponding to PE 22 in 2019/2020/2021.

17X / 19.

43X / 17.



Risks indicate that market fluctuations have a great impact on the business.

Leibao Hi-Tech (002106): Stylus pen penetration enhances new products and enhances company profitability

Leibao Hi-Tech (002106): Stylus pen penetration enhances new products and enhances company profitability
Event: The company released its 2018 annual report and achieved operating income44.2 ‰, an increase of 10 per year.7%, gross margin level is 12.7%, down by 1 each year.8 units, net profit attributable to parent company is 2.25 ppm, an increase of 59 per year.7%, net profit is 0.32 yuan, up 60 every year.0%.The company achieved operating 苏州夜网论坛 income of 12 in the fourth quarter.600 million, an increase of 9 per year.4%, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 52.43 million yuan, an increase of more than 16%.5%.The profit distribution plan for 2018 is to distribute cash dividends for every 10 shares1.00 yuan (including tax), no bonus shares, no capital reserve will be converted into share capital. Touch notebook computer market penetration, the company’s new product expansion is smooth: the company’s 2018 annual sales revenue increased by 10.7% is 44.US $ 200 million, which basically maintained stable growth. During the process of increasing the penetration rate of the touch-type notebook computer market, the company has maintained a long-term good cooperative relationship with the core notebook computer manufacturers around the world. In the 杭州桑拿网 process of industrial development,Obtained multiple ideal order sizes.In terms of products, the company developed new products such as OGM and SFM on the basis of OGS to replace terminal products. In 2018, it obtained an alternative distribution of viewing orders, so the company has increased the unit price of its products.From the perspective of income market distribution, overseas markets are still the company’s core source of income, and domestic mobile terminal brands such as Huawei and Xiaomi have gradually expanded to the notebook computer market. The company is expected to obtain more abundant customer channel resources in the domestic market. The gross profit margin is affected by the proportion of externally purchased parts, and the increase in R & D investment will not change the company’s net profit: the company’s gross profit margin fell in 20181.Eight is twelve.At 7%, the decrease in gross profit margin was mainly due to the increase in the outsourced part of the company’s costs, so the company’s operating profit margin and net profit margin both improved.Favorable fluctuations in exchange rates also have a positive effect on corporate profits.In terms of operating expense ratio, the continuous increase of research and development expenses is the core of the company’s continuous improvement. The research and development expense ratio increased by 0 in 2018.Six is four.0%, and other expense ratios have basically remained stable. Internal and external extension of business in 2019, capital investment to ensure market competitiveness: The company disclosed the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2019. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company has achieved loss, and product demand, especially for new products with high added value, has increasedPromoted the growth of the company’s gross profit margin, and the changes in exchange rate fluctuations were relatively favorable.Looking at the company’s future plans, expanding the production base in Chongqing to include new high-value-added negative evaluations such as OGM and SFM. Your continuous expansion depends on R & D investment and capacity building. Other alternative companies will also improve their products through episodic expansion.Therefore, we believe that in 2019 the company needs to ensure the growth of its endogenous and extended expansion and improve market competitiveness through effective capital operation. Investment suggestion: We predict that the company’s earnings from 2019 to 2021 will be 0.37, 0.42 and 0.49 yuan.Return on net assets were 6.4%, 6.7% and 7.2%, maintain rating to increase holdings-A recommendation.We believe that the company’s fundamentals can remain stable under the conditions of matching existing production capacity and customer size, and product upgrades will continue to advance. In the future, if opportunities for rapid growth are needed, the rapid penetration of domestic manufacturers or the rapid introduction of new products are required.Gained market recognition and was given an overweight -A rating. Risk warning: Macroeconomic fluctuations affect the company’s end product demand; the progress of research and development and market expansion of new products including SFM is less than expected; adverse changes in the exchange rate market affect the company’s profitability.

Daqin Railway (601006): Demand remains to be seen, tax and fee reductions are slightly dragged down

Daqin Railway (601006): Demand remains to be seen, tax and fee reductions are slightly dragged down

In February 2019, the Daqin Line’s traffic volume reached 3185 inches, a decrease of at least 10.

48% On March 8, the Daqin Railway released monthly data: In February 2019, the company’s core assets, the Daqin Line, completed freight volume approaching 3185, a decrease of 10.

48%, average daily traffic 113.

For the first time in 75, 78 heavy trucks were driven daily.

9 columns; From January to February 2019, the Daqin Line has gradually completed a freight volume of 708.6 billion tons, a decrease of 5 per year.


We believe that the January-February transportation volume was lower than expected, mainly due to: 1) the lowest daily coal consumption during the Spring Festival; 2) higher inventory of power plants in the early stage.

Iron and Steel plans to implement a new round of tax and fee reductions. We estimate that there will be a slight drag on the company’s profits.

Adjust target price to 9.


90 yuan, maintaining the “overweight” level.

The daily power consumption of downstream power plants is low and the inventory is high, which makes the demand for railway coal transportation less than January-February 2019. The average daily transportation volume of the Daqin Line is 120.

10 initially, 5 per year.


Looking back at the average daily traffic volume in 2018, except for April and October, which were less than 120 digits affected by maintenance, all other months exceeded 120 digits.

We believe that the main reasons for fluctuations in the transportation volume from January to February are: 1) higher factory inventory; 2) total daily coal consumption.

From January to February, the average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups was 60.

Initially, it was reduced by 10 per year.

twenty one%.

Looking forward to March, we believe that: 1) the gradual commencement of downstream and industrial power demand is expected to increase; 2) the spring routine maintenance of the Daqin line is gradually upgraded, and the demand for power supply and port replenishment inventory is expected to increase; 3) the Daqin line will be shipped in MarchVolume is expected to rebound to more than 120 expectations.

The inventory of factory buildings gradually increased, and the inventory of Qingang decreased slightly from the end of 2018 to the beginning of 2019. The climate was biased toward warm winter and spring.

According to the China Meteorological Service, the first cold wave forecast for the winter of 2018 will occur in early December, the latest in nearly a decade, and 2017 will occur in early November.

Due to the high temperature, the daily coal consumption of the factory is the lowest, and the inventory 北京桑拿洗浴保健 is gradually higher.

The coal inventory of the six major power generation groups gradually climbed from the early 1495 period to the end of February 1709.

Qingang inventory was inserted from 577 at the beginning of January and slightly decreased to 546 triggers at the end of February.

Since September last year, due to the impact of Qingang production restriction, the correlation between Qingang inventory changes and demand has declined.

Tax and fee reductions may cause a slight drag. The 2019 government work report proposes a tax reduction plan.

Lu Dongfu, general manager of China Railway, said: 1) In response to the target rate being reduced from 10% to 9%, China Railway will follow up the freight price of the railway, and pass the tax reduction amount to downstream enterprises in an equal amount; 2) It is planned to gradually reduce from AprilOr cancel the fine freight and miscellaneous items project. It is planned to reduce the dedicated line operation and maintenance service charges from July and reduce the self-provided vehicle maintenance service charges.

We believe that 1) the impact of tax cuts on railway freight companies is neutral, and the benefits of tax cuts will extend downstream to the manufacturing industry; 2) fee reductions will have a distorted effect on railway freight companies.

Adjust target price to 9.


90 yuan, maintain the “overweight” rating based on the Daqin line January-February traffic volume, we assume 2019/20 traffic volume from 4.


5.1 billion tons adjusted to 4.


5.1 billion tons.

Taking into account the impact of the reduction in traffic volume and the reduction of taxes and fees, we adjusted our profit forecast for 2019/20 to 146.

70/142.9.4 billion (previous value: 149.


4.9 billion).

Based on 9.


0x2019PE remains unchanged, adjust target price to 9.


90 yuan (previous: 9).


10 yuan).

The company has a high dividend yield, assuming 2018 and 2019 dividend restructuring52.

3%, unchanged from 2017, and the dividend yield for 2019 is expected to be 6 in 2018.

02%, 6.

11% (based on 2019/3/8 closing price).

Maintain the “overweight” rating.

Risk reminder: The economy is going down fast, the railway transportation capacity of Mongolia, Hebei and Japan is accelerated, and the highway governance is relaxed.

Semir Apparel (002563) 2019 Interim Report Review: Children’s Wear Business Sings into the Leisure Business Ready to Go

Semir Apparel (002563) 2019 Interim Report Review: Children’s Wear Business Sings into the Leisure Business Ready to Go

Report Summary: Incident: The report consolidated and the company achieved revenue 82.

1.9 billion (+48.

57%), net profit attributable to mother 7.

2.2 billion (+8.

20%), net profit after deduction is 6

6.9 billion (+8.

02%); EPS is 0.

27 yuan.

  Kidiliz has been consolidated since the fourth quarter of 2018. In the first half of the year, excluding the consolidation factor, the company achieved revenue 67.

1.5 billion (+21.

38%) and realized a net profit of 8.

3.1 billion (24.

61%), the original main business performance slightly exceeded expectations.

  Children’s wear is high, casual and stable, and two-wheel drive protects growth.

In total, Balaballa’s children’s clothing business achieved revenue 37.

300 million, an annual increase of 30%; Semir brand casual wear realized income 29.

44 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.


In terms of quarters, Q1 children’s wear and casual wear achieved growth rates of approximately 30% and 20%, respectively. In the second quarter, under pressure from the industry, Barabara maintained a growth of approximately 30%, and casual wear also experienced steady growth.

Looking forward to the future, the company’s Barabara brand is strong. At this stage, the preference of children’s clothing consumers for head brands will become more and more stable.

Casual wear business, product reform and innovation, the brand will be reshaped, and the trend will win more consumers’ favor.

  Online channels continue to exert force, and “rebuilding a Senma through e-commerce” is on the way.

In the first half of the year, the Kidliz coefficient was eliminated, and online revenue was 20.

85 ppm, an increase of 29 in ten years.

9 billion.

The company’s online planning is divided into two parts: first, online and offline synergistic brands, independent online and offline operations go hand in hand in competition; second, pure online brands, e-commerce brand Minibalabala has grown rapidly, and operating income has increased.102.


  The offline channels maintained a benign net opening of stores.

At present, the company has a total of 5,546 stores in Barabara, an earlier net increase of 253, continuing the trend of high-speed stores opened last year.

There are currently 3,858 adult casual wear stores, an increase of 28 nets earlier, of which 370 were opened and 342 were closed. The switch store mainly focused on channel structure adjustment.

The improvement of the company’s channel structure in the past two years is mainly reflected in the expansion of the store area and the increase in the proportion of shopping mall channels.

Among them, the average area of adult casual wear stores has expanded from 100 square meters to 150 square meters, and the floor efficiency has remained basically stable under the increase in area, indicating that the company’s business capabilities are increasing.

  Kidliz’s consolidation brings the potential for long-term integration.

Kidliz has been consolidated since Q4 2018, and contributed revenue in the first half of the year14.

830,000 yuan, budget 1.

1 ppm (of which Q1 offset is close to 35 million yuan and Q2 is reduced by about 75 million yuan).

The company through the agency of TCP and the acquisition of Kidliz has brought an increase in the scale of children’s clothing business. The scale effect will help the development of the Barabara brand in China and save power for going abroad in the future.

For the Kidliz business itself, the company will develop key brands by “strengthening strengths and avoiding weaknesses”, and cut back on brands to achieve profitability within three years.At present, the company’s main development belongs to the CATIMINI brand and the ABSORBA brand. It develops mid-to-high-end business of children’s wear in China, and complements Barabara.

  Profit forecast and rating: As an asset-light company, the core competition comes from brand management and product development.

The company’s children’s wear brand has shown strong brand power, and adult casual wear product improvement will be the focus of future efforts.

Focusing on the expected status of the M & A company, we slightly lowered our profit forecast for this year.

Realizing 南宁桑拿 operating income of 212 in 2019-2021.

12, 242.


7.2 billion, net profit attributable to mothers was 18.

84, 23.

73, 27.

8.5 billion, corresponding to PE of 16.


83, 10.


Maintain “Highly Recommended” rating.

  Risk warning: long-term macro-economic end-consumption continues to weaken, and M & A adjustments are less than expected

Huatai Securities (601688) 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: Wealth Management and Institutional Business Two-Wheel Drive Mechanism Improvement Is Expected to Exceed Expectations

Huatai Securities (601688) 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: Wealth Management and Institutional Business Two-Wheel Drive Mechanism Improvement Is Expected to Exceed Expectations

This report reads: The company’s investment and brokerage business contributed income elasticity, performance exceeded expectations, and subsequent development contributed more flexibility; the company deepened ownership reform, and the follow-up mechanism improvement trend exceeded expectations, which will help the company to comprehensively enhance its competitiveness and maintain an overweight rating.

Investment points: Maintain “Overweight” rating. As the quarterly report exceeds expectations, the company’s estimate is raised to 2 with reference to the forecast level of comparable companies.

25 PB, corresponding to a target price of 30.

34 yuan.

The company’s revenue in Q1 2019 was net profit attributable to its parent 62.


80 ppm, +45 a year.

65% / + 46.

06%, more than expected; net assets attributable to the mother was 1066.

260,000 yuan before the end of 2018 +3.


Considering that the quarterly report exceeds expectations, the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is raised to 1.



38 yuan (0 before adjustment.



25 yuan).

The current driving force of the brokerage sector comes from market liquidity expectations and the progress of subsequent industry policy dividends. The company ‘s wealth management and institutional business are driven by two rounds of transformation and development. The follow-up mechanism improvement trend is higher than expected, which will help the company to comprehensively enhance its competitiveness and maintain a flat growth.
Investment and brokerage business contributed income elasticity, business was allowed to grow under the dual-wheel drive of institutional business and wealth management, and it is expected to contribute more performance elasticity in the subsequent market recovery, and the risk of credit impairment losses is also very mitigated.

①The elasticity coefficient of the company’s brokerage business income, which will be released in the future to release more flexibility: 2019Q1 brokerage net income continued to increase + 14%, which is better than the industry level: ②The performance of investment business exceeded expectations, and will gradually promote the transformation of business model to trading:Late +129.

9% (+148 years after excluding joint ventures).

6%), with an income share of 54.

0%; ③ The impairment pressure brought about by the market recovery has been substantially relieved. In Q1 2019, only 6.21 million credit impairment losses were accrued, and other assets were impaired by 2.73 million, and then gradually improved.

The company deepens the ownership reform, further improves corporate governance, implements a fair incentive plan for core employees, and improves the follow-up mechanism to exceed expectations, which will become the key to the success of the follow-up 上海夜网论坛 company’s overall improvement in competitiveness.

Catalysts: Market activity continues to increase; regulatory policies continue to loosen marginally.

Risk warning: policy relaxation does not meet expectations; the market has fallen sharply and trading activity has declined.

China Resources Shuanghe (600062): The 15% growth rate of the profit side is in line with expectations. The rapid volume of the preparations sector has promoted the company’s stable growth.

China Resources Shuanghe (600062): The 15% growth rate of the profit side is in line with expectations. The rapid volume of the preparations sector has promoted the company’s stable growth.

Key Investment Events: The company released its 2018 annual report and achieved revenue 82.

25 ppm, an increase of 28 in ten years.

08%; net profit attributable to mother 9.

69 ppm, an increase of 14 in ten years.

95%; non-net profit attributable to mother 9.

110,000 yuan, an increase of 11 in ten years.


In the fourth quarter, it achieved revenue of 19.

16 ppm, an increase of 14 in ten years.

99%; net profit 1.

25 trillion, a year down 0.

29%, we think the company’s fourth-quarter net profit growth is mainly due to the increase in selling expenses.

Optimization of the structure of the infusion sector promoted the increase in revenue and gross profit margin: the company’s revenue from the infusion board business28.

USD 1.8 billion, an increase of 22% per year. The reasons for the rapid growth of infusion revenue are as follows: 1) Rationalization of product structure-Flexible packaging sales increased by 4% compared with the end of 2017, and flexible packaging sales increased by 10%, of which direct infusion revenueIncreased by 42% in the first half of the year.

BFS revenue of new products for the infusion product line increased by 61%; 2) The company’s efficiency continued to improve-the gross profit margin of the infusion segment in 2018 reached 53.

59%, an annual increase of 8.

71 units.

In addition to the adjustment of product structure, the main reason for the continued improvement in gross profit margin is efficiency improvement. In 2018, the per capita output value of infusion increased by 22%, and labor substitution increased by 16%.

We believe that further adjustments to the company’s product structure and further improvements in efficiency will continue to increase the 成都桑拿网 overall gross profit margin, reaching a gross profit margin of more than 55% in 2019.

The formulation sector achieved stable and rapid growth: the company’s formulation sector grew faster and achieved revenue52.

7 billion, an annual growth rate of 33.


Among them, chronic disease platform and specialty platform income were 30.

08 trillion and 8.

46 trillion, the growth rate was 26.

69% and 58.


We believe that the rapid growth of the company’s preparations sector is mainly driven by two aspects: the gradual volume increase of existing products and the low opening to high opening brought by the “two-vote system”.

Earnings forecast and investment grade: The company’s infusion product line has achieved double-digit growth, and products such as pitavastatin, Fusueyue and Kelisu have gradually increased, and No. 0 has remained stable.

We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 11 in 2019-2021.

1.5 billion, 12.

8.2 billion and 14.

77 ppm, an increase of 15 in ten years.

1%, 15.

0%, 15.

2%; corresponding EPS is 1.

07 yuan, 1.

23 yuan and 1.42 yuan.

Therefore, we maintain our “overweight” rating on the company.

Risk reminders: risks of changes in industry policies; risks of rising production factor costs (or prices); product price risks.

Shanghai Xiba (603200): Clear layout of the extension path, unique vision of hazardous waste

Shanghai Xiba (603200): Clear layout of the extension path, unique vision of hazardous waste

Invested in and held Jiangsu Province Hazardous Waste Project Company with unique vision 4.

On the 10th, it was announced that it planned to invest and hold Jiangsu Kangspar Renewable Resources Company by increasing its capital to the target company. Kangspar is constructing a waste packaging barrel comprehensive utilization project in Jiulong Town, Taizhou City, Jiangsu Province, with a total investment of 62.99 million yuan.It is planned to apply for a hazardous waste business license (920,000 waste packaging drums per year +1000 tons / year). According to the feasibility report of the announcement, after the project is in production, the average annual revenue is 4600 million and the annual average net profit is 12.3 million.The internal rate of return is about 19%, and the economic benefits are high. The company’s pace of expansion is stable, expanding new growth points for the contribution of hazardous waste exhibitions, taking into account the uncertainty of project landing time, and temporarily maintaining the profit forecast EPS1 of 19-21.



20 yuan, maintaining a target price of 41.


52 yuan / share, maintain “buy”.

The “Xiangshui Incident” promoted the accelerated release of critical third-party third-party disposal needs. The extension layout has a unique vision. The company plans to increase capital to the target company by investing in Jiangsu Kangspayer. After the capital increase, it will hold 51% of the target company’s equity and allocate a consideration of 3014.Consumer is constructing a waste packaging barrel comprehensive utilization project in Jiulong Town, Taizhou City, Jiangsu Province. The total investment of the 北京夜生活网 project is 62.99 million yuan. It is planned to apply for a hazardous waste business license (920,000 waste packaging barrels / year +1000 tons / year).) After the operation, considering the recent “water accident” caused by the accelerated release of hazardous waste demand: According to the Environmental Statistics Bulletin, in 2017, waste-producing enterprises disposed of hazardous waste by themselves accounted for 66%, and chemical safety supervision promoted the promotion of third-party penetration (the governmentAnd the park ‘s stronger demand for exemption of liability extends governance to professional environmental protection enterprises), the company ‘s extended layout of Jiangsu hazardous waste projects shows a unique vision, and promotes better economic benefits of safeguard projects under the high level of hazardous waste.

The extension process is stable. In the future, there will be breakthroughs in leveraging the space to acquire equity of Blue Sky Environmental Science. It is intended to work with Tianjin Academy of Environmental Sciences to further strengthen scientific research capabilities and expand project entrances. Then, it will acquire Henan Kaishun to carefully test water and hazardous waste disposal areas and deepen its main business.At the same time, it is actively carrying out industrial chain extension. This time, it reinvested in holding hazardous waste project companies again, gradually transforming the advantages of resources in the industrial field and gradually expanding into the industrial hazardous waste field, generating new performance growth points.

The company has sufficient funds (18 in cash on hand 4).

0 billion / idle funds to buy wealth management 2.

800 million), the 18-year asset-liability ratio is only 18%, and the future extended deposit plus leverage space is broken down.

Steady growth in operations, EPC’s flexible operation segment (water treatment system operation management + chemical sales and services) has grown steadily (18% revenue growth rate 13%, revenue ratio 65% / gross profit ratio 81%), downstream customersMainly from the petrochemical / automotive / steel / papermaking / civilian sector. Customers have been serving large state-owned enterprises for many years. Customers and project resources are high-quality and stable.The development of the EPC project accelerated, and the joint bid for Hegang 3 was won in 18 years.

700 million EPC orders (the company undertakes about 2.

700 million, accounting for 65% of 18 revenues), and the future is determined to obtain its operating orders.

Maintain target price of 41.


52 yuan / share, maintain the “Buy” rating temporarily maintain the 19-21 profit forecast EPS 1.



20 yuan, maintained at an average of 19 P / E22x, the company’s operating business accounted for a high proportion / sufficient cash flow / outstanding growth, maintaining the company’s 19-33xP / E, maintaining a target price of 41.


52 yuan / share, maintain “buy”.

Risk warning: The project progress is less than expected, and the growth rate of gross profit margin is at risk.